Europe could replace most of the US financial and military aid for Ukraine if Washington permanently ended its support, a new analysis released by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) in Germany showed on Thursday.
“Our data show that Europe would be able to compensate for much of the US aid – but only if policymakers act decisively,” Christoph Trebesch, research director at IfW Kiel said.
The only exception is military intelligence, where Europe does not have comparable capabilities, the institute said.
European governments have spent an average of 0.1% of their gross domestic product (GDP) per year on bilateral aid for Ukraine, IfW Kiel notes.
If the United States withdrew its support permanently, European countries would need to increase their spending to 0.21%, which would represent an increase from the current €44 billion ($48 billion) to €82 billion per year, according to the institute.
To reach this amount, EU institutions would have to increase their spending from €16 billion to €36 billion. Germany would need to boost its spending from €6 billion to at least €9 billion and France would have to spend some €6 billion compared to its current €1.5 billion.
“If all of Europe followed Denmark’s example and mobilized 0.5 percent of GDP annually, we could even significantly overcompensate for US aid,” Trebesch said.
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The US military aid that would need to be replaced consists primarily of rocket artillery, ammunition for howitzer artillery and long-range air defence systems, IfW Kiel said.
The institute said that to compensate for the loss of critical US systems and their ammunition, Europe could turn to the international market or purchase comparable systems.
European governments could also order weapons, in particular drones, directly from Ukraine, it suggested.
