Climate-driven rising temperatures could result in an estimated 430,000 additional deaths every year by 2050, with low-income countries expected to bear the overwhelming burden.
According to a new report by the Climate Impact Lab, people in poorer nations could account for nearly 10 times more heat-related deaths than those in wealthier countries, largely because they lack adequate access to electricity needed for cooling.
The report warns that while air conditioning and other cooling technologies can significantly reduce the risk of heat-related deaths, many of the countries most exposed to extreme temperatures are also the least equipped to provide reliable electricity for fans, air conditioners and other cooling systems.
“Air conditioning is a lifesaver, and climate change will no doubt lead to more AC adoption in today’s wealthy countries. Our research finds, however, that in too many countries around the world people will not be able to respond in the same way.
The result is one of climate’s great cruelties: lots of death in the very countries that have contributed the least to climate change,” said Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago.
He described the findings as an urgent call for governments to improve electricity systems by ensuring reliable and affordable energy while investing in other proven adaptation measures capable of saving lives.
The report notes that access to cooling remains largely a privilege of the world’s wealthiest populations. Although many middle-income countries are expected to expand electricity generation and increase the use of cooling technologies as temperatures rise, low-income countries are projected to make only marginal gains.
Electricity used for cooling is expected to increase seven times faster in middle-income countries than in low-income countries. In the poorest nations, the projected increase in electricity consumption per person due to climate change would be so limited that it would generate enough power to operate a single LED bulb for only four months.
The report identifies a dangerous combination of rising temperatures and inadequate electricity supply in 18 countries, home to about 676 million people. Researchers estimate that approximately 377,000 people in these countries could die from heat-related causes annually by 2050 because temperatures are increasing while access to cooling remains extremely limited.
Most of these countries are located in northern sub-Saharan Africa, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad, while others are in South Asia, notably Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar. All are currently classified as low-income or lower-middle-income economies.
The report contrasts these countries with wealthier nations in the Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Although they experience similarly high temperatures, their significantly greater electricity consumption and wider access to air conditioning are expected to substantially reduce heat-related deaths.
For example, the projected increase in electricity use per person in Niger will be only one-ninth of that in Saudi Arabia. As a result, Niger is expected to record about 27,000 more heat-related deaths annually by 2050 than its wealthier counterpart.
Africa Faces Disproportionate Risks
Africa is expected to experience some of the sharpest increases in extreme heat, with several countries projected to record substantial rises in heat-related mortality.
The report projects the largest increase in Niger, where heat-related deaths could rise by 68 per 100,000 people, followed by Burkina Faso (60), Djibouti (55), Chad (47) and Mauritania (42).
However, these same countries are also expected to see only modest improvements in electricity access. Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad are projected to add just 0.06 to 0.07 gigajoules (GJ) of electricity per person, leaving many households without sufficient power to operate fans, air conditioners or other cooling technologies needed during periods of extreme heat.
In Chad, electricity consumption is expected to increase by 162 percent, but researchers note that this reflects the country’s extremely low starting point. Consequently, many communities are still likely to remain without reliable electricity.
By contrast, Southern African countries are expected to record much smaller increases in heat-related deaths. According to the report, the greatest challenge lies in the fact that countries facing the most severe heat are also those with the weakest electricity systems and the fewest resources to protect their populations.
Ghana Among Countries Facing a “Heat Trap”
Ghana is also expected to become significantly hotter in the coming decades. The report projects an additional 19 heat-related deaths per 100,000 people as temperatures continue to rise.
Researchers classify Ghana among countries caught in what they describe as a “heat trap”—where temperatures are rising but electricity supply is not expanding quickly enough to provide widespread access to fans, air conditioners and other cooling technologies.
Approximately one-third of Ghana’s population lives in these high-risk areas. By 2050, the country could experience more than 4,000 additional heat-related deaths annually.
Compared with neighboring countries, Ghana’s outlook is mixed. It is projected to be less severely affected than Burkina Faso and Togo but more vulnerable than Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire.
“We’ve identified the places most at risk of seeing more people die from the heat and least able to power up ACs to save them, so people and governments can zero in on saving the greatest number of lives,” said Ashwin Rode, a fellow at the Climate Impact Lab and Director of Scientific Research at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).
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He said communities will need a combination of adaptation measures to reduce the risks posed by rising temperatures, including improved access to electricity, heat early warning systems, emergency action plans, expanded healthcare services and targeted social protection programmes.
“Many adaptation approaches remain untested,” he said. “We’re working to change that.”
The Climate Impact Lab said it is developing a global guide to help governments and communities identify the most effective climate adaptation strategies. The report is the second publication in its Adaptation roadmap series, which argues that while reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential, countries must also invest in practical adaptation measures that enable people to withstand the growing impacts of climate change.
Source: Reuben Torkutsa
